The conservative party of embattled South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol faces a quandary: How do members distance themselves from an unpopular leader without handing a big win to their political opponents.
For now, they are trying to accomplish that by blocking Yoon’s impeachment in a vote set to take place in the coming days over his imposition of martial law earlier this week, while also asking him to quit the People Power Party, or PPP.
Han Dong-hoon, the party’s leader, sought to thread that needle in a meeting with colleagues on Thursday, saying he condemned Yoon’s “unconstitutional martial law” while also saying he needs to think about “the hearts of my supporters as a conservative politician.”
“As the leader of the party, I will endeavor to ensure that this impeachment is not passed to prevent the damage to the people and supporters caused by the unprepared chaos,” Han said.
For the impeachment motion to be successful, the opposition Democratic Party – which controls parliament after a big win in April legislative elections – needs only eight of the 108 lawmakers in the PPP to switch sides and vote to remove Yoon. Local newspaper Donga Ilbo reported Friday that at least five members of the party are still undecided.
For many conservative lawmakers, it makes more sense to position themselves to win an election down the road rather than triggering an early vote next year in which they could get battered. Although Yoon is unpopular, with a 17% approval rating even before the martial law fiasco, voting him out now would only help the political fortunes of the Democratic Party and Han’s main rival for the presidency, Lee Jae-myung.
“For lawmakers, the single most important consideration in all of this is how they can prolong their life,” said Shin Yul, a political science professor at Seoul’s Myongji University. “The ruling party members are weighing the pros and cons, and they’ll probably think that they have more to gain by voting against impeachment this time.”
Lee, the opposition leader, acknowledged that dynamic in an interview with Bloomberg on Thursday, saying that it may be difficult to get the votes from the ruling party this week. Still, he said the Democratic Party would continue pushing for the president’s ouster even if he survives the initial impeachment motion.
“He will be impeached – the only question is whether he will be ousted the day after tomorrow, a week after, or a month or three later,” Lee said.
Lee Jae-myung, center, and other party members hold protest signs demanding the resignation of Yoon at the National Assembly in Seoul. Photo Credit: Bloomberg
For the PPP, its recent history is helping to shape its decision-making. Some conservative lawmakers who supported the impeachment of former President Park Geun-hye in 2016 later suffered from a negative public image for appearing to betray her.
In the wake of that scandal, the conservative bloc rebranded as the PPP. Despite some internal opposition, the party recruited the outsider Yoon – a former prosecutor who helped convict Park – to help clean up its image.
Instead, the party is now looking to avoid another prolonged period in the political wilderness. While Yoon has become politically toxic, he backs a tough line on North Korea and pro-business policies that attract conservative voters.
‘I Will Take Charge’
By blocking the initial impeachment vote, conservative lawmakers can look to appeal to their base while they work to cut ties with Yoon himself. And Han, who is also a former prosecutor and a relative political novice, can use the time to consolidate power.
Han’s faction of the PPP has about 20 lawmakers, and they were among those who joined with the opposition in the early-morning hours of Wednesday to vote down the martial law order. He’s now looking to convince the other members of the party, many of whom sit in the middle between him and Yoon, to move over to his camp.
“I met with the president yesterday, but his perception of the situation was very different from mine and the people’s, and it was difficult to empathize with him,” Han told his colleagues on Thursday. He asked for their support, adding: “I will take charge and take the lead to fix this situation.”
While the left-leaning opposition leader Lee was confident that Yoon would eventually be impeached, others in his party were worried that pushing for impeachment too fast allowed the conservatives to gain momentum.
Former Democratic Party lawmaker Woo Sang-ho, who led the passage of the impeachment bill against former leader Park, told local newspaper Donga Ilbo that the opposition should’ve taken the time to woo conservatives and build public support for ousting Yoon.
“The political power has a mission to clean up the national mess and organize the country,” the newspaper cited Woo as saying, referring to the opposition. “And if it treats the impeachment of the president like a political battle, it may blow this opportunity and not succeed.”