- No-Confidence Vote: French Prime Minister Michel Barnier faces a critical no-confidence vote on Wednesday, just three months after his appointment.
- Reason For The Vote: Barnier’s budget bill sought to slow down France’s deficit through tax rises and spending cuts. The budget remained unacceptable to the opposition but he used a special procedure – Article 49.3 to push it. “I don’t think French people will forgive us for choosing party interests over the future of the country,” he told MPs while clarifying the reasons for his decisions.
- Chances Of Survival: Despite Barnier’s optimism, opposition parties on the left and right are expected to unite and remove him from office. When asked if there was a chance his government could survive the vote, Barnier replied, “I want this and it is possible. I think it is possible that there is this reflex of responsibility where beyond political differences, divergences, the normal contradictions in a democracy we tell ourselves that there is a higher interest.”
- Political Instability: France has been experiencing political uncertainty since summer elections produced a divided parliament, and Barnier’s ousting could increase pressure on President Emmanuel Macron.
- Consequences: If Barnier loses the vote, he will remain caretaker prime minister until Macron announces a new government, a process that could take weeks. However, Barnier stressed how important it is to maintain government continuity especially considering France’s current economic challenges.
- Historic Significance: Barnier is expected to become the shortest-lived prime minister in France’s Fifth Republic and it would be the first successful no-confidence vote since Georges Pompidou’s government in 1962 when Charles de Gaulle was the president.
- Macron’s Next Move: Macron has reportedly begun considering his pick for the next prime minister, but the process could take weeks. Besides that, he has no plans to resign and has made clear that he would “honour [the trust of the French people]… until the very last second of my term to serve the country.”
- Impact on the French Economy: Political instability could impact the French economy in many ways now since the European Union pressures France to reduce its debt. If he is voted out of office, there will be no budget for 2025 and emergency measures will be taken to keep the country solvent.