Iran has issued a stark warning to its Arab neighbours and US allies in the Gulf, threatening severe retaliation if their territories or airspace are used to aid Israel in any potential attacks on Iran, the Wall Street Journal reported. The warning was conveyed through secret diplomatic channels, targeting oil-rich states like Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Jordan, and Qatar, all of which host US military forces, the WSJ report claimed.
This comes after Israel vowed a harsh reprisal against Tehran, following an Iranian ballistic missile barrage that targeted Israel earlier this month. Israeli officials, outraged by the attack, have pushed for retaliatory strikes on Iran’s nuclear or oil infrastructure, which they view as critical to undermining Tehran’s aggressive military posture. Iran has pledged to strike back, threatening Israel’s civilian infrastructure as well as Arab states that might facilitate an Israeli or US-led attack.
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According to WSJ, these nations have communicated to the Biden administration their unwillingness to be dragged into a broader conflict by allowing their military infrastructure or airspace to be used in strikes against Iran. Officials in these energy-rich Gulf states fear that their oil facilities, traditionally seen as under US protection, could become prime targets in the event of escalated hostilities. With one of the world’s highest concentrations of American troops stationed in the region, any military action could also put US forces at significant risk.
One of the major concerns for the Gulf states is the potential impact on the global oil market if conflict escalates. A full-blown war between Israel and Iran could disrupt oil exports passing through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for global energy supplies. Any disruption in the flow of oil could lead to skyrocketing energy prices, destabilizing not just the region but global markets as well. According to the WSJ, Arab leaders, including those from Saudi Arabia and the UAE, pledged to avoid any involvement in potential military strikes against Iran, fearing the repercussions on their oil infrastructure.
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In response to the escalating tensions, the US imposed new sanctions on Iran’s oil and petrochemical industries, specifically targeting Iran’s so-called “shadow fleet” of ships that have been involved in circumventing sanctions. The US Treasury and State Departments designated multiple companies and vessels involved in the transportation of Iranian petroleum, part of a broader effort to cut off the financial lifelines supporting Iran’s missile programs and regional militias.
“Today’s sanctions target Iranian efforts to channel revenues from its energy industry to finance deadly and disruptive activity, including the development of its nuclear program and ballistic missile proliferation,” US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said in a statement.
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This growing tension is complicating the already fragile alliances between Arab states and Israel. While these nations share a common desire to counter Iran’s influence, they are wary of becoming embroiled in a direct military confrontation that could engulf the entire region. Some Arab countries, like Jordan, have previously cooperated with Israel and the US by shooting down Iranian projectiles headed for Israel earlier in the year. However, backing a full-scale Israeli strike on Iranian soil is seen as a much more dangerous proposition.